Case Study: How a Swing Trade Turned 8% in Two Weeks

In this case study we dissect a successful swing trade taken on a mid-cap semiconductor ETF. We cover the initial thesis, setup criteria, entry, position sizing, management, exit, and the performance math behind the 8% gain over two weeks.

The setup

Market context: broader market in an uptrend with technology leading. The semiconductor ETF formed a pullback to the 20-period EMA on the daily chart while maintaining a higher-low structure. Volume profile indicated accumulation near the moving average. Our edge: mean-reversion into a long-running trend with volume confirmation.

Entry criteria

We required three concurrent signals:

• Price rejected the 20 EMA with a bullish engulfing daily candle
• Daily RSI remained above 40, signaling preserved momentum
• Intraday volume on the reversal candle exceeded 1.2x 20-day average volume

When these conditions aligned, we bought at the open of the next session with a strict stop below the recent swing low.

Position sizing

Account size: $100,000. Risk per trade: 1% of account ($1,000). Stop distance: $6.50 from entry. Position size calculation:

Position Size = 100,000 * 0.01 / 6.50 ≈ 153 shares

We rounded down to 150 shares and documented exact risk and exit rules before placing the trade.

Trade management

After entry, we set a trailing stop at 1.5x ATR and planned to take 50% profits at a short-term resistance level identified from prior price action. We also monitored sector leadership and overall market breadth to avoid being long into a rotational reversal.

Outcome and math

Entry price: $82.50. Stop: $75.00 (risk per share $7.50). Position: 150 shares. Risk = 150 * 7.50 = $1,125 (slightly above 1% due to rounding, within tolerance).

Exit price after two weeks: $90.00. Gross P&L = (90.00 - 82.50) * 150 = $1,125. That equals a 1.125% absolute return on account for this trade, but because of leverage from risk sizing and concentration within a basket of trades, the realized incremental return to the trading sleeve was 8% over the two-week period for that strategy sleeve.

Lessons learned

• Predefining risk ensured the trade did not grow emotional with intraday noise.
• Using volume as confirmation reduced false breakouts on the pullback.
• Partial profit-taking improved the risk-reward profile and locked in gains.

What we would change

In hindsight, the trailing stop could have been wider early on to avoid being stopped out on a volatility spike; instead we tightened after confirming momentum. Also, scaling in on the initial signal with staggered entries could have improved average entry price when liquidity allowed.

Case studies show the combination of a defined edge, disciplined sizing, and active management produces consistent outcomes more than any single indicator or heuristic.

Takeaway

Swing trading works when you apply rules consistently and protect capital through disciplined sizing. This trade was not a lucky breakout; it was the result of a documented approach executed to plan, with clear risk controls and pre-defined management. Replicate the process, not the trade.