Weekly Market Roundup: Macro Moves That Mattered

The past week delivered volatility driven by central bank commentary, industrial data, and rotation between sectors. This roundup distills the most actionable items for traders and provides levels to watch for major indices, FX, commodities, and rates.

Central bank tone and rates

The Federal Reserve reiterated a cautious stance, signaling patience on easing while noting resilient labor data. Markets priced a modest chance of rate cuts later in the quarter but displayed skepticism. Treasuries were mixed: the 2-year yield slid 8 basis points while the 10-year was flat, compressing the curve slightly.

Why it matters: Changes in the yield curve drive financial conditions and risk appetite. Traders should track 2s/10s and real-time inflation surprises as catalysts for rate-sensitive sectors like banks and housing.

Equity market action

Large-cap tech led gains mid-week as AI-related chip stocks rallied on several positive earnings updates. However, small caps lagged, suggesting concentration of risk. The S&P 500 remains in a short-term uptrend but faces resistance near previous all-time highs.

Watch levels: S&P 500 support 4770-4800, resistance 4920-4950. A daily close above resistance would increase the odds of a fresh leg higher; a drop below support could invite a consolidation phase.

FX and dollar dynamics

The US dollar index retraced after hitting local highs. EUR/USD found support near 1.08 and staged a bounce following softer-than-expected US ISM manufacturing data. Traders should monitor nonfarm payrolls and payrolls revisions as potential drivers for FX volatility next week.

Commodities

Oil prices rose on tighter-than-expected inventory data and geopolitical risks. Gold appreciated modestly as real yields fell. Copper showed resilience, reflecting steady demand in China despite mixed PMI data.

Sector rotation

Rotation into defensive sectors like utilities and staples was brief; momentum favored cyclicals late in the week after positive manufacturing prints. Option-implied volatility spiked around earnings for several names and compressed after results — an opportunity for sellers with the right risk management.

Market internals

Advancers outpaced decliners on the final trading day, but breadth remains narrow. Short interest rose modestly in certain momentum names, creating potential squeeze setups if buyers return.

Short-term traders should respect intraday levels and use volatility bands; longer-term traders should look for macro confirmation before reallocating capital.

Scenarios to prepare for next week

• Risk-on continuation: Break above S&P resistance with tech leading and yields stable. Favor momentum continuation setups and trend-following strategies.
• Risk-off shock: Surprising inflation print or geopolitical escalation causes equity repricing. Switch to defensive allocation, tighten stops, and reduce position sizes.
• Range-bound chop: Slow news flow leads to consolidation. Prioritize mean-reversion and options strategies that benefit from theta decay.

Levels and instruments to watch

Indices: S&P 500 4770 support, 4920 resistance. Nasdaq: 15700 support, 16300 resistance. DXY support 101.2, resistance 103.0.

Commodities: WTI support 72.50, resistance 79.50. Gold support 1880, resistance 1960.

Trading checklist for the week

1. Review macro calendar each morning for high-impact releases.
2. Predefine intraday risk limits and daily loss thresholds.
3. Monitor breadth and sector rotation to avoid concentration risk.
4. Use ATR-adjusted stops to account for regime changes.

Final note

Markets remain sensitive to macro surprises. Keep position sizes manageable, and use systematic rules as your anchor during volatile moves. We will track any new regime signals and highlight them in our mid-week update.